the math of showing up

There's this fascinating concept in philosophy called the "Stockdale Paradox," named after Admiral James Stockdale, who survived as a prisoner of war in Vietnam for over seven years.

When asked who didn't make it out, Stockdale said: "The optimists. “

They were the ones who said, 'We're going to be out by Christmas.'

And Christmas would come, and Christmas would go.

Then they'd say, 'We're going to be out by Easter.'

And Easter would come, and Easter would go.

And then Thanksgiving, and then it would be Christmas again.

And they died of a broken heart."

The paradox? You must maintain unwavering faith that you will prevail in the end, regardless of the difficulties, AND at the same time, confront the most brutal facts of your current reality, whatever they might be.

I know, sounds shitty.

But that’s honestly how it is.

Imagine you're at a basketball game. There are two scoreboards:

• One tracks points scored

• The other tracks attempts made

Most of us only see the first scoreboard - the achievements, the wins, the visible successes.

But success keeps a secret tally on that second scoreboard – how many shots you were willing to take, how many times you stepped up to the line knowing you might miss.

Here's a simple football analogy: The more shots on target, the more chances of a goal.

Sometimes, one goal is all you need.

Here are some rock-hard facts:

• Every time you show up after failing, your probability of eventual success increases

• Every time you quit, your probability drops to zero

• Therefore, the only way to guarantee failure is to stop trying

It's simple probability.

The more attempts you make, the higher your chances of success, especially when each attempt teaches you something new.

Every new thing you try comes with rejections, losses, failures, and setbacks.

It’s part of the package.

So, why not get it out of the way?

If you wanna learn how to play the guitar, the first time you play it would be miserable.

So you try again, something different from the first time. Still bad, but it's better.

So you try again, something different. Worse, but you keep going.

So you try again.

and again, and again, and again.

Each time trying something different than the previous.

If you do this enough times, by the law of simple math, the probability of you sucking reduces.

You reduce the chances of you losing.

And inadvertently, you increase the chances of you winning.

There's something deeply dignified about the person who refuses to be defined by their failures.

Not because they're in denial about them, but because they understand that failure is simply part of the process, not the end of it.

Samuel Beckett has a famous line:

"Ever tried. Ever failed. No matter.
Try again. Fail again. Fail better."

We do tend to mythologize overnight success, but the truth is so less glamorous and much more accessible:

Success is available to anyone willing to fail more times than most people try.

You don't need to be the smartest person in the room.

You just need to be the one who's still there when everyone else has gone home.

Godspeed, and have an amazing week. ⚡️