Fallacies and Biases pt. 1

Fact: Multitasking is impossible.

The human brain is actually incapable of multitasking—instead we are actually ‘context-switching’.

That is, we’re quickly switching back and forth between different tasks, rather than doing them at the same time.

The brain is beautifully complex. And you probably think you’re in complete control of your decisions and thoughts.

Everyone likes to think they’re in control don’t they (more about control in last week’s edition, check it out here), especially when it is their own brain…right?

This is gonna be an ongoing series of me covering logical fallacies, common thinking errors and more stuff akin.

This week, I’m gonna talk about these three topics:

1. ‘Red Car’ Theory

2. Self-Serving Bias

3. The Gambler’s Fallacy

Let’s get into it.

1. Red Car Theory - Opportunities and Conditions

Imagine you are driving to work.

You see a lot of vehicles pass by you—cars, bikes, trucks of all shapes and sizes.

It’s a normal day isn’t it?

Now what if I told you that on your way back home, for every red car you spot, you get 20$?

You would keenly be on the lookout wouldn’t you?

This is exactly how opportunities work.

The more you are on the lookout for them, the more opportunities you get.

‘Create’ your Luck

How could you ever find something if you don’t know what it is you are looking for?

Ideas, opportunities, chances: they don’t just fall into your lap like that.

You go out there and expose yourself to the very thing you want to get, until you know where, how and when to get it.

For an author facing writer’s block, he/she doesn’t just stare at the wall and wait for an idea to hit them.

They read and read and read, until they have some reference on what to write about next.

Same with business owners. You don’t start a business with a world changing idea. You expose yourself to information—loads of it, until you gather an idea on what to do, what not to do and how to do it.

You don’t start with the perfect product. You build it over time.

Iteration is key.

Even if you fail, you now know what NOT to do and how NOT to do it, and more importantly, you took the hardest step: starting.

Win-win.

The world is fast paced. Keep up by constantly learning. No matter where you are in life.

Ensure education doesn’t stop till the day you die.

Begin before you are Ready

People complain all the time about ‘conditions not favouring them’ before starting something.

But there is NO perfect condition.

The odds won’t always be in your favour, the stars won’t align.

You start regardless of the fact.

Anyone who became successful never knew that what they were doing was going to workout when they started.

They were doubtful. Anxious. Scared.

But they did it anyway.

They took that first step. Because the first step is always the hardest to take. It gets the ball rolling.

To quote Assassin’s Creed, take that leap of faith.

Be on watch. There’s chance everywhere around you. Seize it.

Hunt down opportunities. Start before you are ready.

2. Self-Serving Bias

We actually do this quite often.

The self-serving bias is when people tend to credit themselves when something goes right, and blame something/someone when things go south.

When your co-worker turns up late to work, you see them as lazy and attach it to their personality subconsciously.

But when you turn up late to work, it’s traffic and bad weather. You delegate your late behaviour to external factors in an instant.

This process is common among many of us, as our initial reaction is to praise ourselves when we achieve success and blame external factors for our shortcomings.

‘Failures are due to external forces, while successes are due to internal actions.’ is what we immediately choose to believe.

This is a simple yet harmful bias, as it changes our perception of others far too quickly.

Try negating this bias by putting yourself in their shoes before being quick to judge them.

Practice self-compassion and always look for ways to improve yourself when faced with criticism.

Be kind to yourself. We are human after all. ❤️

3. Gambler’s Fallacy

Gambler's fallacy refers to the erroneous thinking that a certain event is more or less likely, given a previous series of events.

It is also called the Monte Carlo fallacy, after the Casino de Monte-Carlo in Monaco where it was observed in 1913.

10001011101001110110110100

Find the pattern in which these numbers are arranged.

Any luck? Good on you if you managed to do so.

I promise you, I just spammed 1’s and 0’s.

People assume there is a balance in the universe.

Our human brains are designed in such a way that, we try and find patterns in places where there is utter chaos.

There might be no pattern to begin with, but we force ourselves to think that everything has a meaning and a way of order to it.

If a coin flips heads three times, people would bet on it flipping tails the fourth time.

We assume because the event of heads occurring three times in a row is so rare, that the fourth event has to be tails.

Truth is, as the saying goes: ‘Probability doesn’t have memory.’

There is no rule stating that a coin can only flip heads for n times before it has to flip tails.

For all we know, a coin can flip heads ten times in a row, and there is no stopping it.

You answering option ‘C’ 5 times in row in a MCQ test is this fallacy at work.

Your answers might be all correct, but you will begin to doubt yourself because it ‘does not happen often’.

Try finding the difference between the independent, and inter-dependent events around you, there is a difference.

Thanks for all the feedback for last week’s edition, truly means a ton! 🥰

I try to focus more on quality rather than quantity with these editions, feel free to reply to this email or drop a DM on Instagram with any criticism, praise or thoughts about the content.

Check out this video to learn more about other common thinking errors and biases that plague our mind on a day-to-day.

If you like what you see, help me out by sharing this link with this your friends and colleagues:

Thank you for your time, Happy Monday and I wish you as always, a wonderful week ahead. God bless. 🧿